Monday Night Downer

Wow, ESPN sure has a whopper of a game tonight. Two mediocre west coast NFC teams playing in the rain. Yikes.

Anyways, I have a feeling that the 49ers can cover the +10 in this matchup, despite their offensive woes and injuries. The defense is largely healthy and has played well this season, but Seattle's injuries are what matter most. The Seahawks will be without Shaun Alexander and Deion Branch. Two of the only weapons on that offense. The windy, rainy weather will make the passing game less useful in this matchup, which means it will come down to Morris vs Gore. I would take an 80% Gore over the other option any day.

Take the under if you can find it at 38. This game won't be intriguing or fun to watch, but a modest wager could at least give you something to do on Monday night.

Pick: 49ers +10 and U 38

NFL Sunday Picks

Bad day yesterday, went 8-11 and missed some good picks. Put it behind and head to the NFL...

Buffalo -3 PUSH over Miami
Cleveland +10 over the Steelers
Kansas City -3 over the Broncos
Jacksonville +4.5 over the Titans
Green Bay -5.5 over Minnesota
Washington -3 over Philly
New Orleans -10 over St. Louis
Cincinnati +3.5 over Baltimore
Atlanta +3.5 over Carolina
Chicago -3.5 over Oakland
Dallas -1.5 over New York Giants
Detroit +1.5 over Arizona
Indianapolis -3.5 over San Diego

Weekend Plays

Nailed the game last night, still can't believe oddsmakers were giving WVU 17 points. Anyways, onto this week.

Penn State (25) at Temple +25
Temple has not really been blown out by any opponent this year and the under is 9-3-1 in Temple's last 13 home games. Penn State has played almost all their games close this year and has not faired well going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Take the points and Temple at home.

Pick: Temple +25

Wake Forest at Clemson (20) -9
Jump on this. Wake Forest is a shell of the team they were last year when they won the ACC championship, and Clemson still beat them by 10 points. Clemson has rolled their past three games, outscoring 147-41. Two of those were conference games. Take Clemson, Spiller, and Davis to roll through the Wake.

Pick: Clemson -9

Alabama (23) at Mississippi State +5
I think Alabama may get Croomed in this matchup. Alabama usually only wins or loses by a few points, never blowing out anyone. The trends are against the Bulldogs, but they did just march into Kentucky and come out with a win, while Bama had that crushing loss at home vs LSU. Croom beat em last year and he knows how to hang tough. Take Sylvester and the points.


Pick: Miss St +5

Texas A&M at Missouri (7) -19.5
Missouri has been a spread covering machine this season, going 7-1 this season against the spread. I don't see them changing at all here, especially against a mediocre Aggie team at home.

Pick: Mizzou -19.5

Kentucky (22) at Vanderbilt +3.5
This is the best Wildcat team we've seen in years, and they have still beat Vandy handily the past three meetings. Vandy has played teams tough this season, but 3.5 points is just a win or a loss straight up anyways and I can't see Kentucky stumbling here after their embarrassing loss to Miss St last week. Look for a big revenge type game from Woodson.

Pick: Kentucky -3.5

Boise State (19) at Utah State +24
Note the Hawaii game where the passing attack put up 52 points on Utah State. Utah State is just a terrible team and the Broncos won this game 49-10 last year. Go blue.

Pick: Boise State -24

Connecticut (16) at Cincinnati -6.5
Is UCONN ever going to get any respect? They are a damn good team this year and have beat three Big East rivals in a row. Cincy has some pop too, but I think a touchdown is too much to take Cincy.

Pick: UCONN +6.5

Kansas (5) at Oklahoma State +6
Kansas still isn't getting any respect either. See here:

• Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
• Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

I suppose that means take OK State...nah.

Pick: Kansas -6

Quick Picks:
Michigan -2.5 over Wisconsin
Arkansas Pick'em over Tennessee
Ohio State -15 over Illinois
Virginia Tech -6 over FSU
Georgia -2 over Auburn
Arizona State -7 over UCLA
Miami -3 over Virginia
South Carolina +7 over Florida
Boston College -6 over Maryland
California +4 over USC
Baylor +38 over Oklahoma

Big East Bumblers

Tonight we have Louisville at the Mountaineers as 16 point dogs. In most gambling circles, this number has risen to 17. While Louisville has been hit or miss this season, I think this is way too many points to hand to a team that lost to South Florida. Louisville is 4-0 ATS as a big road dog. West Virginia does not have a very impressive secondary, so this could prove to be a big night for Brian Brohm.

Another factor? This game has yet to be a blowout in the Big East.
In '06 - 44-34 Louisville
In '05 - 46-44 WVU

Both of these games saw largely the same players that are on these teams this year. Also, even if WVU gets a nice first half lead, Rich Rodriguez may choose to sit Pat White as he often does, bringing the offense to a complete holt (see South Florida Thursday night game).

My picks?
Tease Louisville to +23 and the spread to over 60.

Both of these teams are strictly offensively minded and as you can see, the 80 point average they have had the last two years is in your favor.

Happy betting.

Monday Night Hit Stick Pick

This game is not going to be pretty. Two phenomenal defenses and two mediocre offenses taking the field that screams UNDER, UNDER UNDER! Lets take a look...

Samari Rolle and Chris McCalister are out on the Ravens D, which has not looked as dominant this year as it has in years past. With that said, Baltimore has only lost one game by more than a touchdown all season long, and that was when they were blindsided by the apparently decent Cleveland Browns.

The Ravens always play the Steelers tough, as the divisional matchup offers some good ole fashioned hate. I don't see the Ravens getting blown out by the Steelers as the oddsmakers seem to envision. This team has not covered the spread all season, but if there were ever a time to take the Birds, this is it.

Safest bet?

Tease the Ravens from +10 (BoDog) to +16 or 17 and tease the O/U to 42.5 (BoDog) and take the under.

If I was going to bet on anything else, I would probably just go with the +10 to Baltimore.

Teaser: Ravens +16, Under 42.5

Sunday Grindhouse Quick Picks

I went 9-5-2 yesterday. Not bad, but not great. Here are my NFL picks for today...

Tenn -5.5 over Carolina
Vince Young is a spread covering machine and at home, I see no change.

Denver +3 over Detroit
I am still not convinced Detroit is that good. We will see if Bly and Bailey can shut down the passing attack.

New Orleans -3.5 over Jacksonville
Brees and company is rolling and the Jags lost Marcus Stroud up the middle to a drug suspension. Deuce and Bush should have a few more holes to hit up the middle today.

Cincy -1 over Buffalo
This will be a shootout, as neither defense is good and Losman has the reins this week to throw to Lee Evans all day. Cincy's O will prove to be at least one point better in the end.

Green Bay -2.5 over Kansas City
Favre finally has a good team around him, and even though he has never beat the Cheifs, I see him stealing a win and running away from Arrowhead.

San Diego -7 over Minn
San Diego is just too powerful for the Vikes. This could be a landslide.

Washington -3.5 over NY Jets
The Jets are going 1-15. 'Nuff said.

Cleveland -1 over Seattle
Cleveland is proving to be a very tough team at home this season. Shaun Alexander still has not found his stride. Go with Cleveland.

San Francisco +3 over Atlanta
Atlanta is a team in turmoil and they are locally blacked out this week. The fans have finally made their voices heard (or not heard...) and there will be little support at this game this week for the Falcons. Joey will be sacked again and again.

Tampa Bay -3.5 over Arizona
Tampa D at home against a rotating set of quarterbacks will be able to shut down Leinart and Warner.

Houston +3 over Oakland
Houston will right the ship with an outright win over Oakland this week.

Indy +6 over the Pats
The Pats weren't even 6 point favorites to the Jets and Dallas earlier this season, I just don't know how the hell they are all of the sudden 6 point favorites against a fellow unbeaten on the road. The Colts D will step up and at least make this a game. Go big on Indy...

Philly +3 over Dallas
This is a trap game and I did not even want to pick it. I think that Philly will win straight up. Dallas has struggled mightily in Philadelphia the last few years and on primetime, look for McNabb and Westbrook to have a game. Stay away from this one, but I think Philly takes the points.

Good luck, good picks.

Weekend Picks

The weekends picks...

Clemson (24) at Duke +16

The Tigers are 5-2 ATS against an opponent with a losing record and even though the home team is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings, Duke is just too beat up defensively in the front four to keep up with Spiller and Davis.

Pick: Clemson -16

Wisconsin (19) at Ohio State (1) -15

This game is always played very tough and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Buckeyes defense is stout, but the Wisconsin offense has found its groove in their last couple games, outscoring their opponents 77-6. Take the points.

Pick: Wisconsin +15

Vanderbilt at Florida (17) -14.5

After my Dawgs went down and upset the Gators last week, I can't see anything but an absolute blowout in the Swamp. The Commodores have played teams tough this season, but Florida has too much talent to have lost 3/4 games. Take Tebow and the Gators to rebound from last week and put a hurtin' on Vandy.

Pick: Florida -14.5

Troy at Georgia (10) -16

I don't like Georgia to cover this game at all. Troy is 6-2 ATS this season and the Dawgs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games where they are picked by 10.5 or greater. The Bulldogs will give up some touchdowns to Troys passing attack and Troy comes in with a 6 game winning streak. Don't see the Bulldogs covering.

Pick: Troy +16

San Jose State at Boise State (22) -25.5

Boise has an uncanny way of covering at home and I don't see that trend changing. SJ lost 30-0 to Fresno State last week. Take the blue field.

Pick: Boise State -25.5

Texas (12) at OK State +3

OK State got dismantled by Troy earlier this season and I don't think Texas will have any problem covering 3. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings of this group.

Pick: Texas -3 PUSH

LSU (3) at Alabama (18) +7.5

Tuscaloosa is a tough place to play, but the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and Bama is 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 home games. Take LSU to cover and take over the number 2 spot in the polls after this week.

Pick: LSU -7.5

Quick picks:

USC -15 over Oregon State
Arkansas +5 over South Carolina
Rutgers +1.5 over UCONN
Boston College -6.5 over FSU
Cincinnati +5 over South Florida
Oregon -7.5 over Arizona State
Texas A&M +21 over Oklahoma
Missouri -4 over Colorado
Michigan -4 over Michigan State PUSH

Good luck and good picks...