Opening Day Nostalgia

"Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to Iowa for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up your driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you look around, you'll say. It's only $20 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come." -James Earl Jones in Field of Dreams

Opening day represents one of the greatest days of the year for baseball fans all around the country. It represents hope. Hope for a playoff birth, for a chance at glory, for a turnaround season. Every fan of every team, from the Royals to the Yankees, enters opening day with thoughts of October dancing in their heads. Writer Thomas Boswell even wrote a book about it, Why Time Begins on Opening Day, a great read for any devout baseball fan.

Opening day in Cincinatti is a city-wide holiday, as the league's first ever professional baseball team actually has a parade every opening day, celebrating the rebirth of a new season. The Reds are the only team in baseball that has the benefit of opening at home every year on opening day.

On Opening Day, the garauntee of a stellar matchup is there too, as it's your ace against their ace. Adrenaline pumping and nerves mounting, as the first ABs of the season and the first 6-4-3 double play combinations are tested in games that count. Hall of Famer pitcher Early Wynn once said, "[a]n opener is not like any other game. There's that little extra excitement, a faster beating of the heart. You have that anxiety to get off to a good start, for yourself and for the team. You know that when you win the first one, you can't lose 'em all."

Crazy things happen on opening day as well...
-In 1940, Hall of Famer Bob Feller pitching for Cleveland threw the only no-hitter ever on Opening Day.

-My dearest "Teddy Ballgame" batted .449 in Opening Day games, hitting 3 home runs and 14 RBIs in 14 games.

-On Opening Day in 1974, Hammerin' Hank tied the Sultan of Swat Babe Ruth's all-time home run record when he blasted his 714th home run at Riverfront Stadium in Cincinatti.

-Hall of Fame pitcher Walter Johnson recorded 9 SHUTOUTS in 14 opening day starts throughout his illustrious career.

-Hall of Famer Frank Robinson hit 8 home runs throughout his career on Opening Day

-Soon to be first-ballot Hall of Famer Greg Maddux is a perfect 6-0 in 7 starts on Opening Day

While opening day victories usually don't mean much as a forecast for how a team will perform throughout the season (the Devil Rays share the current winning streak with a few other teams of 3 straight Opening Day wins), the excitement and aura of the baseball diamond cannot be downplayed on this day of days. So take a sick day this Monday, tell your wife you'll mow the lawn or clean out the garage tommorow, grab a 6-pack, sit in the easy chair and soak up the magic of Opening Day. Because on Tuesday, you might just be another Pittsburg/Kansas City/Tampa Bay/Florida fan talking about next season.

HOLY TORNADO! Predictions...

I figure before the season starts and baseball's lack of parity is on display, I might as well try my hand at some division predictions...

AL East

For the first time since Tampa Bay ws created in expansion, I feel that the AL East has five legitimate contenders. Tampas young talent is now maturing and reaching the primes of their careers with Soctt Kazmir, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, BJ Upton and Delmon Young. Tampa is my favorite story coming out of the AL East because they are a young, fun team that has unbelievable upside.

Now, let me preface this pick with COMPLETE UNBIAS. The Yankees DO NOT HAVE THE PITCHING to win this division this year. I am not saying the Red Sox are better hitters, but look at the Yanks rotation: Wang is hurt, Pettite is already having lingering back spasms, Pavano is the opening day starter and he hasn't pitched in about two years, Kei Igawa has been hit hard in spring training, Mussina is getting old but hes consistent and Philip Hughes cannot be expected to step up in his first year in New York. The Boss will remove Cashman's head come the end of the season.

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles (sorry Miggy, no World Series for you this year like you wanted. Jaret Wright couldn't help the Yankees, he certainly won't help the Orioles)

AL Central

Take out the god-forsaken Kansas City Royals and the AL Central looks to be a photo-finish. Without Liriano to complement Santana, the Twins rotation is a question mark this year. This will be the year that the Twins do not reign over the Central. The White Sox look good, as does pennant winning Detroit, but I have to reach and give the division to the Cleveland Indians. With 5-tooler Grady Sizemore, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and a slew of young talent waiting to explode, I think Cleveland makes a huge leap this year and takes the division.

1. Indians
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. White Sox
5. Royals

AL West

This year, Oakland won't have a chance. I look at the line up and wonder how they could have let the Big Hurt go so easily after his 40 year old buckling knees carried the team offensively last year. Eric Chavez has fallen from grace and shows no sign of upside. Their chance was when they had Zito, Mulder and Hudson, but those days are long gone now. The Rangers are hurt by their ballpark, a pitchers nightmare and hitters dream. Even though Texas is very talented on offense and will benefit from a full year of Ian Kinsler, I don't think they have enough. I give it up to the LAA Angels. Bartolo Colon had a good pitching session the other day showing excellent velocity and control, and combining that with Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver (once he's healthy), K-Rod, Howie Kendrick, and a reliable outfield, the Angels should win this division. It will NOT be by a huge margin though.

1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners

NL East

Though I am an AL guy at heart, the NL East is probably the most evenly matched division in baseball (minus the Nationals since they let Soriano go). The Phillies showcase the reigning MVP and hope that Brett Myers and Cole Hamels can pitch them to a playoff berth. The Phillies have horribly underperformed the last few years, as each year it seems there are "experts" talking preseason about how this is the year for the Phillies. Well, sorry, but it still is not the year for the Phillies. Ryan Howard or not, the team faces too many sluggers in their bandbox home to be successful. The Marlins are my favorite team in this division with so much young talent that it is truly sad thinking about how the Red Sox, Yankees and other big spenders will pluck them away in the coming years. With a $15 million payroll, the Marlins cannot expect to get into the playoffs. This team overperformed immensely under fired Manager of the Year Joe Girardi. It will be fun to watch how they perform individually, but hopes for a playoff appearance are doubtful.

This leaves the Braves and Mets. Both teams stocked with talent and big names BUT one doth not look past the rotations to figure this one out... The Mets are putting out there Tom Glavine, the Shadow of the Former El Duque, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Chan Ho Park. There isn't a single pitcher in that rotation at the top of his game. I don't even need to go over the Braves rotation because the Mets are so mediocre. And Pedro doesn't pitch until June but that doesn't matter, he will NEVER be the Pedro of 1999-2000.

1. Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

NL Central

To me, this is the most puzzling division to figure out. The Cards are an easy pick for the division, but I think that the wild card comes out of the central as well. For me, the Astros are the wild card in this league, adding Carlos Lee to Lance Berkman is deadly and with the 2nd best pitcher in the league with Oswalt, the Astros take the WC. The Cubs have hitting, but no pitching to back it up. As per usual, Prior and Wood are question marks and Ted Lilly isn't going to win more than 12 games this year. Dempster is a shaky closer as well. I like the Brewers as well, but there's too much competition in the league for the small market beer-makers. Cincinatti is interesting with Arroyo and Harang as a one-two punch but I don't buy the hype. Arroyo could easily be a one-hit wonder.

1. Cardinals
2. Astros (Wild Card)
3. Cubs
4. Reds
5. Brewers
6. Pittsburg (Jason Bay won't waste his whole career on a loser...)

NL West

Arizona is going to be good this year...second place good. Randy Johnson will flourish now that hes out of New York and the young stud outfielders Chris B. Young and Carlos Quentin are going to surprise the league this year. Colorado simply doesn't have the pitching to win, despite the blossoming superstars Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins. The Dodgers overperformed last year and lost J.D. Drew in the offseason. San Francisco got a key pickup with Barry Zito, but they lost Jason Schmidt. Bonds will play a Clemens-length season or until he hits 756. San Diego will hold on to the division again, as Clay Hensley will benefit from Greg Maddux's presence and Jake Peavy and Chris Young will dominate hitters in pitchers dream Petco Park.

1. Padres
2. Diamondbacks
3. Dodgers
4. Giants
5. Rockies

Thats it...goodnight Senegal.

Who To Watch in '07

Conor Jackson, ARI: Look for this guy to see all of his numbers take a nice leap in his sophomore year. After posting a career .332 AVG in 3 seasons in the minors, he transfered that to .291 in 485 AB in the majors. His line last year was .291/15 HR/75 R/79 RBI. With a full year as a starter and about 100 more ABs, I'll put him at .288/20-25HR/90R/99RBI.



Alex Rios, TOR: Last year, everyone gave the rave reviews and big time contract to Vernon Wells, shifting attention away from Rios' break out year. At .302/17HR/82RBI/68R/15SB Rios posted a very respectable, albeit under-the-radar performance. The numbers would have been significantly gaudier if Rios had not contracted a staph infection in June. Hes a five-tooler in the making with power, speed and quick hands. He will emerge this year as a prominent part of a potentially daunting Blue Jay lineup alongside Glaus, Wells, Frank Thomas and Overbay. With the protection in this line up I'll go with .315/24HR/78R/97RBI/25SB.



Howie Kendrick, LA-ANA: While he does seem to have Francouer syndrome with 9BB in 267ABs, this 22 year old posted .285/4HR/25R/30RBI/6SB in limited playing time. The 6SB for a 1B are impressive enough in that limited playing time. He will have plenty of time to develop this year and despite the growing pains experienced by all young players, I predict .280/14HR/75R/63RBI/18SB.


Brad Hawpe, COL: Hawpe is somewhat of a puzzle in Colorado, as he is one of the only Rockies players I have ever seen who produced significantly LESS at Coors Field than at opponents fields. Heres the numbers breakdown:
Home: .282/6HR/34R/36RBI
Away: .303/16HR/33R/48RBI
If he can begin to take advantage of Coors Field, then there is nothing to stop this 27 year old from posting sky-high numbers. I put him at .305/30HR/80R/99RBI.


Adrian Gonzalez, SD: Hitting in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park 81 games a year is no walk in the park. Gonzalez seems to be on a mission to prove this wrong. A-Gon posted .304/24HR/83R/82RBI last year and at the Fisher Price age of 25, he will undoubtedly improve upon those numbers this year. He proved in his first full season he can hit anywhere and this year will go .308/28HR/95R/100RBI.